Economy Head Aches

This article highlights a couple of new developments in the markets this week. This stood out….

A Hail Mary Pass

…Then again, maybe the S.E.C. is trying to cover up its own culpability in this crisis. Four years ago, the agency pushed through a rule that allowed the big investment banks to take on a great deal more debt. As a result, debt ratios rose from about 12 to 1 to more like 30 to 1. Guess what Lehman’s debt ratio was when it went bust? Yep: 30 to 1…..
(Money market funds all of a sudden had trouble too…)

….Under the circumstances, insuring the money market funds probably makes sense. It will calm investors and keep the commercial paper market functioning. But think about the moral hazard! It bails out poorly managed money funds — the ones most likely to break the buck — at the expense of funds that haven’t taken the extra risk that causes a sudden drop in value.

And then there’s this: If you have your money in a bank account, only $100,000 is insured. But if you have it in a money market fund — which usually has a slightly higher yield precisely because it has a small element of risk — you now have unlimited insurance. It’s the world turned upside down….

….a growing chorus of voices has called for the establishment of a new Resolution Trust Corporation, the entity the government devised in the wake of the savings and loan crisis to take over, and eventually sell off, the assets of failed S.& L.’s…..

….That crisis, however, was very different from this one. Most of the assets in the S.& L. crisis were real estate — which are always going to have value. And the government didn’t have to acquire them; it simply took them over and, over time, sold them. This time, the assets are complex derivatives of uncertain value that the big firms will actually be selling to the government.

But how is the government going to assess these securities — and what price will it pay for them? In many cases, these securities aren’t being sold because they are still overvalued on a firms’ books. That is, their mark-to-market price is unrealistically high. Will the government buy it at the too-high price? If it does, the firms won’t have to take additional write-downs — but it will constitute a huge, unjustified bailout of Wall Street. (More moral hazard.)….whole story here